- Tell： 0086-516-88400888
- Fax：0086-516-88400888
- E-mail：xzhphx@163.com
- Address：Industrial Zone, Liji Town, Suining County, Xuzhou
In the first three quarters of 2018, the international oil price fluctuated at a high level, which put a huge pressure on the cost of the chemical fiber industry, pushing up the price of the combined fiber market. The year-on-year growth rate of the economic benefits of the whole industry increased month by month. The profit and growth rate of the third quarter increased compared with the same period of last year. The overall quality of the industry was good. The sub-industry's operation and differentiation have continued the situation of two-day ice and fire in the first half of the year. The polyester and nylon industries performed well, and the viscose, acrylic and spandex industries were difficult to operate.
First, the basic situation of the industry operation
(1) Supply and demand situation
According to the statistics of the National Bureau of Statistics, the chemical fiber output from January to September was 3,741,500 tons, an increase of 8.42% year-on-year. Among them, polyester production was 291.02 million tons, up 8.95% year-on-year; nylon production was 2,541,300 tons, up 5.93% year-on-year; viscose staple fiber production 2.815 million tons, an increase of 4.97%.
The production and sales of polyester and nylon industry are booming. The operating rate of the polyester industry is over 90%, the working rate of the off-season is still above 80%, and the average operating rate is relatively high in the past two years. The operating rate of the viscose industry and the acrylic fiber industry fluctuated, and the average operating rate of the acrylic fiber industry was less than 70%. The operating rates of the two industries were relatively low in the past two years.
From the demand side, downstream demand has increased year on year. The output of major products in the downstream of chemical fiber has increased to varying degrees. The operating rate of the downstream industry has also increased significantly compared with the same period of last year. The total transaction volume of China textile city increased sharply in the off-season in July and August, which prompted the stocks of polyester and nylon industry to be lower than the same period last year. Lower inventory status. However, the strong demand in the off-season overdrafted some of the peak season demand in September and October, which may cause some manufacturers to increase their inventory during the peak season.
(2) Market
Due to the increase in the price of bulk commodities, the price of synthetic fiber products was generally higher than that of the same period of last year, and the polyester filaments increased significantly. However, the price of PTA fell back in September, and the demand in the peak season was not as expected, so the price of polyester products fell. The market conditions of various sub-sectors are clearly differentiated, continuing the situation of two-day ice in the first half of the year, but the cost-driven role has gradually weakened, and production capacity pressures still exist.
(3) Quality effect
In the first three quarters, the growth rate of the main business income and total profit of the chemical fiber industry increased gradually. From May onwards, the total profit was reversed from negative growth to positive growth. According to the statistics of the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to September, the chemical fiber industry realized a main business income of 590.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.35%; total profit of 28.055 billion yuan, an increase of 22.34%; industry loss of 20.47%, an increase of 6.03 percentage points year-on-year, loss The loss of the company increased by 39.42% year-on-year. The industry's loss, loss and profit rate also increased, indicating that the company's profitability continued to polarize.
The quality of the chemical fiber industry is generally good. From January to September, the profit margin of the chemical fiber industry was 4.82%, an increase of 0.31 percentage points over the same period of last year; the turnover rate of total assets accelerated, and the ratio of three fees decreased, but the turnover rate of finished products decreased. The increase in industry profits, mainly from the market level, is mainly due to the increase in product prices and the follow-up of downstream demand, but its essence is that the supply-side structural reform has achieved certain results, the relationship between supply and demand has been improved, and new product development is accelerating. , in terms of brand, quality, variety have improved.
Second, the main factors affecting the operation of the chemical fiber industry
(1) International oil prices
Political risks and supply volatility have caused oil prices to fluctuate and continue to hit new highs. In the third quarter, oil prices rushed to a high point, and the highs fell in October.
(2) Capacity
Driven by good returns, the industry has a high enthusiasm for investment. From January to September, the growth rate of fixed asset investment in the chemical fiber industry continued its rebound trend last year, an increase of 31.9% year-on-year, and the growth rate increased by 13.9 percentage points over the same period of last year. According to incomplete statistics, the newly added capacity of polyester in the first three quarters was more than 4 million tons (including partial long-stop devices), of which 1.1 million tons of bottles were mainly concentrated in the first half of the year, and new capacity was reduced in the third quarter. It has entered the adjustment stage in an all-round way, and the release of production capacity in the early stage still has a big impact on the industry.
(3) Currency
The RMB exchange rate hit a two-year high, and it is expected that the market may remain at a high level. Although the depreciation of the Renminbi is conducive to exports, the proportion of direct exports of chemical fiber is still low, while the chemical fiber industry is an industry with high dependence on raw material imports. PX, MEG and wood pulp all maintain import dependence of more than 50%, so the depreciation of the RMB will increase. Import cost of chemical fiber raw materials.
(4) Sino-US trade friction
Sino-US trade frictions have gradually escalated, and the chemical fiber industry chain is almost entirely involved. In the short term, the direct impact on China's chemical fiber import and export is generally small, and it has a greater impact on some products in some industries. In particular, the impact on China's textile industry exports will indirectly affect the market confidence of the chemical fiber industry. In the long run, the US import transfer may accelerate the development of competitive countries and affect the international competitiveness of China's chemical fiber industry. But from another perspective, the challenge is also an opportunity, which will force the industry to do a good job of high-quality development, focusing on "practicing internal strength."
Third and fourth quarter industry trend forecast
The macro environment is generally stable, and domestic demand growth will become the absolute main force driving the development of the textile industry. However, the downside risks cannot be ignored, and the uncertainty of the international trade environment has increased, increasing the worries of international buyers and domestic manufacturers. Demand for the peak season in September-October has been overdrawn, coupled with the impact of capacity, the demand will fall in the fourth quarter. Exports are intensifying due to trade protectionism, and the escalation of trade friction between China and the United States may lead to a shift in the external demand market or a decline in demand.
Crude oil has experienced a long period of rising, high oil prices to attract oil-producing countries to increase production. In the fourth quarter, the crude oil market was more bearish, oil prices have been adjusted for more than a month, and the signs of stopping in the short term are still not obvious. However, if political risks increase, oil prices may have a large shock.
The impact of new capacity in the industry will continue, coupled with weaker expectations and weaker oil prices, prices of chemical fiber products may continue to fall. It is expected that the quality and efficiency of the chemical fiber industry will decline in the fourth quarter, and the overall operation is good throughout the year.
Polypropylene high-strength silk plays a very important role in our lives. It has many types of products, each of which has different effects.
The polypropylene high strength wire produced by Xuzhou Peace Chemical Fiber Co., Ltd. has good anti-aging ability and is not prone to aging after a long period of use. At the same time, the "peace" brand polypropylene high strength wire is also very good in corrosion resistance and wear resistance. From another perspective, its use has a long life. It is also very environmentally friendly. It does not produce any harmful substances to the human body and the environment. It is a new type of chemical fiber material, and it is also a very safe choice for you.